| 11 March 2009
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(Denver-CO) If the Denver Nuggets can not beat a Kevin Durant-less Thunder squad tonight at the Pepsi Center the wheels have officially come off and this team is in a serious and desperate situation. Remember, it took Carmelo Anthony hitting game-winners in each of the two previous meetings this year for the Nuggets to prevail over the Thunder so what we do know about tonight's opponents is they are much better than their 18-46 record indicates.
The Nuggets are trying to avoid their first four-game losing streak of the season. And while George Karl still thinks everything is ok with this team, I have to strongly disagree. When you look at the eight losses the Nuggets have accrued since the All-Star break, four of those have been to teams with losing records. Regardless of the fact that three out of those four losses were on the road, this is an alarming trait when entering tonight's game against one of the better losing teams in the league. Even more alarming still is how the Nuggets are dropping these games.
In most of these past eight losses, minus the Sacramento debacle, the Nuggets have at one point in these games held a sizable lead. I'm not sure what has happened to the Nuggets' killer instinct since the All-Star break, but it's clear to see, and painful to watch, Denver will outplay a team for unspecified stretches of games only to lay down and die in the end. It's like the Nuggets exercise their tempo and style of play for short stretches (that are dominating by the way) but then clock off the job as if it were finished. We've seen this type of thing happen against the Jazz, Pistons, and Rockets most recently, but this isn't a trend that's just started. Contrarily, this has been the Nuggets MO since the beginning of the season, but it hasn't been until recently that it's turned around to bite them. My theory is when the Nuggets get things going offensively, whether that be on the fast break or in the half court set, they completely abandon the defensive end because everyone wants a slice of the action. And rightfully so, but after all is well with their jump shots and drives to the cup hitting twine the second the offense slouches the defense never gets restarted and leads, and games, are lost. This is because George Karl, as a coach, is a cockeyed optimist and that kind of approach to the game has transcended itself from the bench to the players on the floor. It's this "everything is ok as long as we score points" mentality that leaves the Nuggets so vulnerable when the offense fails to do so whereas a mentality of "everything is ok as long as we stop the other team from scoring" would probably still have the Nuggets in a position to host a playoff series come the end of April.
But it doesn't do us any good to cry over spilt milk!
If the Nuggets are incapable of managing the defensive aspect of their collective game on a full-time basis the only thing the Nuggets Nation can do is pray for strong performances offensively. Of the four games Denver has won since the All-Star break, they have scored over 100 points in three of them and in three out of those four wins have held their opponent to 90 points or fewer. Furthermore, in all four of those wins the Nuggets have had at least four players reach the double-digit mark in scoring. In comparison to the eight losses over this stretch, it comes as no surprise that the Nuggets had three games where only three players reached double-digits in scoring and in the other five gave up an average of over 112 points per game in said stretch.
Does that prove my point?
If you're not completely sold about my diagnosis I encourage you to watch both how many Nuggets make it to ten points or more in the box score and how many points the Nuggets give up. If everyone is scoring, then everyone is most likely playing some defense. But, if only a few people are getting involved offensively then you can bank on the Nuggets giving up a smorgasbord of points to the Thunder regardless of who they suit up for tonight's game.
And... If Denver loses tonight, they will fall to the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoff landscape. Maybe then, and only then, will George Karl not be so optimistic about the direction this team is heading as the rain storm he refuses to acknowledge turns into a full blown hail storm with a tidal wave of firings and trades surely on the way this offseason.
Cheers to being optimistic!
Go Nuggets!
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