| 18 April 2009
(Denver-CO) Fear not, Nuggets Nation! I have spent the last 36 hours looking for and reading EVERTHING the vastness of the interwebs have to offer me containing the words “Nuggets” and “Hornets” and with no further adieu give you what you can bank on as the, “Definitive NBA Playoff Preview” for your Denver Nuggets vs. the New Orleans Hornets.
Are you ready for NBA gospel?
Head to the kitchen, get a little something to drink, and perhaps a sandwich or something to snack on because after reading this preview you will not need to waste anymore time reading anything else. It’s comprehensive by position, role, context, and as long as a night watching VH1 re-runs of Rock of Love. However, you’ll be silently thanking me at your first round gatherings with friends and foes alike when you have all the skinny on the inner workings that will dictate the outcome of this series.
Let’s now take a look at the starting five, head-to-head.
-POINT GUARD-
Everyone in the free world is saying that Chris Paul gives the Hornets the advantage in the head-to-head match of these two team’s point guards. But, and while the rest of the country bromances over Paul and his otherworldly stats, dreamy eyes, and competitive instincts, I’m here to tell you that what Chauncey doesn’t put in the box score actually gives him, and the Nuggets, the advantage overall.
Yeah, I just said it! Advantage - Nuggets. And here’s why.
It’s no secret that Chris Paul is going to get his. He did all year long against everyone in the league. He’s as quick as a water bug, a phenomenal passer, and a magician with the basketball off the dribble. Hell, he’s my favorite player outside of the Mile High City and for good reasons a plenty. But, there is, and I’ll repeat that again, there is NO point guard in this league as of this very moment that implements HIS team’s strategy better than Chauncey Billups. I’ll even go a step farther and say that no point guard in the league has a better understanding of the game within the game. Chauncey is like Deep Blue when it comes down to playing the chess game that is an NBA playoff series. He puts his pieces in the best possible position to take out the opposition and not many have primped their mates to as much success as Mr. Big Shot has all year long.
So, think about the point guard match-up like this: CP3 may be as explosive as Mike Tyson in his heyday, but Chauncey is akin to manager Don King; No one’s getting paid until Chauncey says so and you can take that to the bank.
-SHOOTING GUARD-
Byron Scott ran out of patience with J.R. Smith and sent him to Chicago who sent him to Denver for an antique Howard Eisley of whom they waived. The Nuggets Nation thanks you, Byron! While the Prodigy may not start for the Nuggets (yet) he is the shooting guard who is going to play the lion’s share of the minutes and gives us the advantage over the Hornets’ Rasual Butler. And allow me to give Denver starter Dahntay Jones his due before I go any further. Jones plays his role perfectly. He gets the starting nod, plays fewer minutes than Smith without even a peep of complaint, and doesn’t fill up the box score like his teammate but still gives this team exactly what it needs in terms of a defensive minded shooting guard who is going to get his money’s worth out of all of his minutes and all six of his fouls.
Now, with that out of the way, here is why the Nuggets have the advantage at the two spot: J.R. Smith loves to show up the team that gave up on him. In four regular season games, Smith averaged 21.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists while shooting better than 50% from the field and over 40% from three. When compared to Butler’s four-game averages of 8.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and one measly assist I would need to go no further to than put the exclamation point next to the words, “Advantage - Denver” but I promised gospel and the choir is singing. Over their last five games, Smith has reached a crescendo in his young career whereas Butler is in a funk. Pure shooting efficiency alone illustrates this perfectly revealing that Bulter is 16-50 from the field in his last five outings while shooting less than 33% from downtown (7-23). On the other hand, Smith is Rocky Mountain High. J.R. is 30-62 from the field over his last five games and is 18-41 from long range and playing very heady basketball. His season per game turnover average is 1.85 miscues a game, but over his last five outings the Prodigy is not even averaging a single turnover per game (0.4) and has not committed one in three of his last five.
Advantage - Nuggets!
-SMALL FORWARD-
As starters, Peja Stojakovic and Carmelo Anthony are under the microscope at the three. It is time for Carmelo Anthony to take center stage in Denver’s best opportunity to make it into the second round of the NBA Playoffs since drafting him third overall in 2003 and who better than for the NBA’s seventh leading scorer overall to match-up with than one of the NBA’s weakest one-on-one defenders?
Carmelo’s greatest strength against his insect counterpart is just that - strength. Carmelo should be salivating every time he faces the basket and Peja is standing in front of him. What should follow on 75% of the touches Carmelo receives is a strong, deliberate take to the basket capped off with a controlled fundamental finish because Stojakovic will either concede lay-ups if no one steps up to bail him out and/or ‘Melo should be shooting free-throws at the nausea of New Orleans.
But… There’s an area where Carmelo can really improve.
Peja Stojakovic scored his second most points by opponent this year against the Nuggets. In the two games Peja was healthy for against Denver he averaged 20.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while shooting 56% from the field and 50% from three. If Carmelo can slow Peja down offensively it will certainly put a lot of pressure on the other Hornets to fill their most plaguing void. See, you have to understand that this New Orleans team has not been an offensive juggernaut fitting of a point guard averaging a top ten clip in points and leading the league in assists. Contrarily, the Hornets have struggled to put points on the board this year and finished in the bottom five league-wide with a shaky 95.8 points per game average.
Without Peja Stojakovic either not scoring the ball due to Carmelo sticking some of that much improved defense we’ve all been hearing about all year or because he’s on the bench with foul trouble due to an offensively aggressive Anthony the Nuggets should be golden at the three spot. With that being said, here’s where things get tricky. New Orleans shucked big bucks to free-agent James Posey and his championship pedigree to come off their bench for assignments like Carmelo Anthony. Their minutes paired are going to be critical, but I still believe Denver has the upper hand as long as Carmelo doesn’t fall in love with the jumper and gets down business at the rim.
Advantage - Nuggets
-POWER FORWARD-
This is one area that the advantage clearly rests with New Orleans. David West has been as steady for the Hornets this year as Chris Paul in arguably his best season as a pro and will be matched up with Kenyon Martin who despite playing in 66 games this year has been the Nuggets biggest health question mark.
West brings season averages of 21 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists into this series and has been hot in the month of April upping his numbers to 24.4 points and better than nine rebounds per game. Kenyon has been fighting through this or that injury all season long (not to mention being the first player to come back from microfracture surgery in BOTH knees) and most recently missed four games due to bruised ribs, but he did give the Nuggets Nation reason to believe he is healthy enough to not leave Denver at too bad a disadvantage. In the final regular season game against Portland, K-Mart looked like Bearcat Kenyon of old when he exploded off the floor to snare a long rebound with one hand from outside the charge semi-circle while pulling his head parallel to the rim and putting ugly faces on patrons of the Rose Garden.
But how well Kenyon can hold up in what is surely going to be a physical series is a bit of concern. Martin has needed a couple of games here and there to rest this or that all season long and in the playoffs games come at you quick.
Advantage - Hornets
-CENTER-
This could be the area that the New Orleans Hornets may have their biggest hurdle. Tyson Chandler says he is about 70% healthy and has only played in 45 games this season due to a gimpy left ankle that even nixed a potential trade with the Thunder. This may very well mean the Nuggets’ level of steady success will be riding on their most steady performer, Nene. Big Brazil has played in 77 games this season after missing all but 16 games last year battling cancer.
Nene is having his finest season to date with averages of 14.6 points, 7.8 rebounds (both career-highs), and 1.4 assists while shooting over 60% from the field. Chandler is having one of his most tumultuous with numbers down across the board. He is averaging just eight points, eight rebounds, a block, and less than one assist per game.
Talk about contrast in the middle.
Advantage - Nuggets
Overall, it’s easy to see that the Nuggets’ starting five should at least, on paper, have the slight advantage (even if you disagree with me about CP3 vs. Mr. Big Shot match-up) over the Hornets. But, in the playoffs, the condition each team is in mentally coming into the series is also important. So with that in mind I’ve developed a three-step way of evaluating the “Context” surrounding both New Orleans and Denver and how their differences might play a role.
For starters, I looked at the last twelve games played by each team. The Nuggets won nine out of their last twelve games which included a season-high, eight-game win streak where the Nuggets won said games by an average of more than eleven points per victory. Five of those were at the Pepsi Center with the two games won on the road coming against the Dallas Mavericks and guess who? The Hornets.
New Orleans hasn’t been so fortunate in its last dozen outings. The Hornets won just five of their last twelve games of the regular season and fared just 2-2 at home. And there is some cringe worthy L’s sprinkled in the seven losses the bugs suffered. NOLA lost to the Knicks by ten, Golden State by eight, at home to the Jazz by 14, at home to the Suns by five, and the Mavericks by eight while also dropping four of their last five games of the regular season.
I feel this is important to weigh when trying to gauge a team’s momentum.
The second area of scrutiny when trying to understand the context of each team is their bench players. It’s been proven time and time again that teams with not only deep benches, but benches that can extend a team’s grip on a game have a distinct advantage in the playoffs.
And once again there seems to be an advantage for the Nuggets.
I’ve already detailed how good J.R. Smith is playing right now by giving him the overall advantage over New Orleans’ starter, Rasual Butler, but that’s not the only position the Nuggets have a star on their bench. Chris Andersen is better than either reserve the Hornets have to offer at both power forward and center with Melvin Ely, Hilton Armstrong, or Sean Marks. The Bird has been the feel-good story of the season and has Big Easy ties of his own. Remember, Andersen was with the Hornets when he was suspended by the NBA for two years for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Granted, the Hornets brought him back for their playoff run in 2007-08 when he was reinstated, but The Bird has always made his nest in Denver since making his NBA debut in 2001-02 with the Nuggets. And coming home to roost has been sweet for the Birdman. Andersen is blocking shots and rebounding at an unbelievable rate with over three blocks and nearly eight rebounds on average over his last dozen games. He’s earned more playing time from George Karl over this same duration proven by playing 20 or more minutes (which is coincidentally his season average) in all but one of those games while playing 30 or more minutes on three separate occasions.
The final reserve for Denver that deserves some mention is Anthony Carter. AC is the grease that stops the gears from grinding offensively for the Nuggets. When he comes into the game the ball movement noticeably percolates and the transition game comes alive for Denver. In comparison to his bench counterpart, Antonio Daniels, a shoot-first guard on a team that struggles to score. I think Anthony Carter, like J.R. and the Bird, gives the Nuggets more bang for their buck from the bench.
The final area of examination when figuring the context of a team is their expectations. This is a bit subjective, but nevertheless puts a pressure index on what the expectations are for each team, respectively.
For the Nuggets, the pressure couldn’t be greater. Finally healthy after years of misfortune to key components, Denver has the Mile High City’s spotlight with the Nuggets franchise tying its best record for an 82-game season, its hometown boy at the helm, and the perennially playoff bound Avalanche done. Now, all eyes are on the Nuggets as they have become the unlikely sports darling of the state after leaving a bitter taste in everyone’s mouth last season with their fifth straight first round bounce last year against the Lakers.
As for the Hornets, they have all the excuses needed to not get out of the first round this year. Injuries, playing in the toughest division in the Western Conference, and midseason trades have made this a rocky season for New Orleans and their fans. Their run to the Conference Finals last season was a treat for a city that needed one, but the collective feeling has been this year’s campaign hasn’t measured up to last’s.
So, while this makes New Orleans a dangerous team without the expectations that the Nuggets may be experiencing it also makes them a team without a lot of pressure. The Nuggets have reacted to pressure situations favorably all season long and once again I feel the Nuggets have an advantage within the contexts each team is playing.
Now it’s time to get down to my prediction. I truly do believe that the Nuggets win this series in six games. CP3 and David West may be able to will the Hornets to a couple of wins, but the Nuggets are prime to finally make it to the second round. They have the better starting five, bench support, home court advantage, less injury issues to overcome, and more pressure to win this series. Sorry, New Orleans, but there will not be an encore Cinderella run for you this year. It’s our turn.
Go Nuggets!
Are you ready for NBA gospel?
Head to the kitchen, get a little something to drink, and perhaps a sandwich or something to snack on because after reading this preview you will not need to waste anymore time reading anything else. It’s comprehensive by position, role, context, and as long as a night watching VH1 re-runs of Rock of Love. However, you’ll be silently thanking me at your first round gatherings with friends and foes alike when you have all the skinny on the inner workings that will dictate the outcome of this series.
Let’s now take a look at the starting five, head-to-head.
-POINT GUARD-
Everyone in the free world is saying that Chris Paul gives the Hornets the advantage in the head-to-head match of these two team’s point guards. But, and while the rest of the country bromances over Paul and his otherworldly stats, dreamy eyes, and competitive instincts, I’m here to tell you that what Chauncey doesn’t put in the box score actually gives him, and the Nuggets, the advantage overall.
Yeah, I just said it! Advantage - Nuggets. And here’s why.
It’s no secret that Chris Paul is going to get his. He did all year long against everyone in the league. He’s as quick as a water bug, a phenomenal passer, and a magician with the basketball off the dribble. Hell, he’s my favorite player outside of the Mile High City and for good reasons a plenty. But, there is, and I’ll repeat that again, there is NO point guard in this league as of this very moment that implements HIS team’s strategy better than Chauncey Billups. I’ll even go a step farther and say that no point guard in the league has a better understanding of the game within the game. Chauncey is like Deep Blue when it comes down to playing the chess game that is an NBA playoff series. He puts his pieces in the best possible position to take out the opposition and not many have primped their mates to as much success as Mr. Big Shot has all year long.
So, think about the point guard match-up like this: CP3 may be as explosive as Mike Tyson in his heyday, but Chauncey is akin to manager Don King; No one’s getting paid until Chauncey says so and you can take that to the bank.
-SHOOTING GUARD-
Byron Scott ran out of patience with J.R. Smith and sent him to Chicago who sent him to Denver for an antique Howard Eisley of whom they waived. The Nuggets Nation thanks you, Byron! While the Prodigy may not start for the Nuggets (yet) he is the shooting guard who is going to play the lion’s share of the minutes and gives us the advantage over the Hornets’ Rasual Butler. And allow me to give Denver starter Dahntay Jones his due before I go any further. Jones plays his role perfectly. He gets the starting nod, plays fewer minutes than Smith without even a peep of complaint, and doesn’t fill up the box score like his teammate but still gives this team exactly what it needs in terms of a defensive minded shooting guard who is going to get his money’s worth out of all of his minutes and all six of his fouls.
Now, with that out of the way, here is why the Nuggets have the advantage at the two spot: J.R. Smith loves to show up the team that gave up on him. In four regular season games, Smith averaged 21.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists while shooting better than 50% from the field and over 40% from three. When compared to Butler’s four-game averages of 8.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and one measly assist I would need to go no further to than put the exclamation point next to the words, “Advantage - Denver” but I promised gospel and the choir is singing. Over their last five games, Smith has reached a crescendo in his young career whereas Butler is in a funk. Pure shooting efficiency alone illustrates this perfectly revealing that Bulter is 16-50 from the field in his last five outings while shooting less than 33% from downtown (7-23). On the other hand, Smith is Rocky Mountain High. J.R. is 30-62 from the field over his last five games and is 18-41 from long range and playing very heady basketball. His season per game turnover average is 1.85 miscues a game, but over his last five outings the Prodigy is not even averaging a single turnover per game (0.4) and has not committed one in three of his last five.
Advantage - Nuggets!
-SMALL FORWARD-
As starters, Peja Stojakovic and Carmelo Anthony are under the microscope at the three. It is time for Carmelo Anthony to take center stage in Denver’s best opportunity to make it into the second round of the NBA Playoffs since drafting him third overall in 2003 and who better than for the NBA’s seventh leading scorer overall to match-up with than one of the NBA’s weakest one-on-one defenders?
Carmelo’s greatest strength against his insect counterpart is just that - strength. Carmelo should be salivating every time he faces the basket and Peja is standing in front of him. What should follow on 75% of the touches Carmelo receives is a strong, deliberate take to the basket capped off with a controlled fundamental finish because Stojakovic will either concede lay-ups if no one steps up to bail him out and/or ‘Melo should be shooting free-throws at the nausea of New Orleans.
But… There’s an area where Carmelo can really improve.
Peja Stojakovic scored his second most points by opponent this year against the Nuggets. In the two games Peja was healthy for against Denver he averaged 20.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while shooting 56% from the field and 50% from three. If Carmelo can slow Peja down offensively it will certainly put a lot of pressure on the other Hornets to fill their most plaguing void. See, you have to understand that this New Orleans team has not been an offensive juggernaut fitting of a point guard averaging a top ten clip in points and leading the league in assists. Contrarily, the Hornets have struggled to put points on the board this year and finished in the bottom five league-wide with a shaky 95.8 points per game average.
Without Peja Stojakovic either not scoring the ball due to Carmelo sticking some of that much improved defense we’ve all been hearing about all year or because he’s on the bench with foul trouble due to an offensively aggressive Anthony the Nuggets should be golden at the three spot. With that being said, here’s where things get tricky. New Orleans shucked big bucks to free-agent James Posey and his championship pedigree to come off their bench for assignments like Carmelo Anthony. Their minutes paired are going to be critical, but I still believe Denver has the upper hand as long as Carmelo doesn’t fall in love with the jumper and gets down business at the rim.
Advantage - Nuggets
-POWER FORWARD-
This is one area that the advantage clearly rests with New Orleans. David West has been as steady for the Hornets this year as Chris Paul in arguably his best season as a pro and will be matched up with Kenyon Martin who despite playing in 66 games this year has been the Nuggets biggest health question mark.
West brings season averages of 21 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists into this series and has been hot in the month of April upping his numbers to 24.4 points and better than nine rebounds per game. Kenyon has been fighting through this or that injury all season long (not to mention being the first player to come back from microfracture surgery in BOTH knees) and most recently missed four games due to bruised ribs, but he did give the Nuggets Nation reason to believe he is healthy enough to not leave Denver at too bad a disadvantage. In the final regular season game against Portland, K-Mart looked like Bearcat Kenyon of old when he exploded off the floor to snare a long rebound with one hand from outside the charge semi-circle while pulling his head parallel to the rim and putting ugly faces on patrons of the Rose Garden.
But how well Kenyon can hold up in what is surely going to be a physical series is a bit of concern. Martin has needed a couple of games here and there to rest this or that all season long and in the playoffs games come at you quick.
Advantage - Hornets
-CENTER-
This could be the area that the New Orleans Hornets may have their biggest hurdle. Tyson Chandler says he is about 70% healthy and has only played in 45 games this season due to a gimpy left ankle that even nixed a potential trade with the Thunder. This may very well mean the Nuggets’ level of steady success will be riding on their most steady performer, Nene. Big Brazil has played in 77 games this season after missing all but 16 games last year battling cancer.
Nene is having his finest season to date with averages of 14.6 points, 7.8 rebounds (both career-highs), and 1.4 assists while shooting over 60% from the field. Chandler is having one of his most tumultuous with numbers down across the board. He is averaging just eight points, eight rebounds, a block, and less than one assist per game.
Talk about contrast in the middle.
Advantage - Nuggets
Overall, it’s easy to see that the Nuggets’ starting five should at least, on paper, have the slight advantage (even if you disagree with me about CP3 vs. Mr. Big Shot match-up) over the Hornets. But, in the playoffs, the condition each team is in mentally coming into the series is also important. So with that in mind I’ve developed a three-step way of evaluating the “Context” surrounding both New Orleans and Denver and how their differences might play a role.
For starters, I looked at the last twelve games played by each team. The Nuggets won nine out of their last twelve games which included a season-high, eight-game win streak where the Nuggets won said games by an average of more than eleven points per victory. Five of those were at the Pepsi Center with the two games won on the road coming against the Dallas Mavericks and guess who? The Hornets.
New Orleans hasn’t been so fortunate in its last dozen outings. The Hornets won just five of their last twelve games of the regular season and fared just 2-2 at home. And there is some cringe worthy L’s sprinkled in the seven losses the bugs suffered. NOLA lost to the Knicks by ten, Golden State by eight, at home to the Jazz by 14, at home to the Suns by five, and the Mavericks by eight while also dropping four of their last five games of the regular season.
I feel this is important to weigh when trying to gauge a team’s momentum.
The second area of scrutiny when trying to understand the context of each team is their bench players. It’s been proven time and time again that teams with not only deep benches, but benches that can extend a team’s grip on a game have a distinct advantage in the playoffs.
And once again there seems to be an advantage for the Nuggets.
I’ve already detailed how good J.R. Smith is playing right now by giving him the overall advantage over New Orleans’ starter, Rasual Butler, but that’s not the only position the Nuggets have a star on their bench. Chris Andersen is better than either reserve the Hornets have to offer at both power forward and center with Melvin Ely, Hilton Armstrong, or Sean Marks. The Bird has been the feel-good story of the season and has Big Easy ties of his own. Remember, Andersen was with the Hornets when he was suspended by the NBA for two years for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Granted, the Hornets brought him back for their playoff run in 2007-08 when he was reinstated, but The Bird has always made his nest in Denver since making his NBA debut in 2001-02 with the Nuggets. And coming home to roost has been sweet for the Birdman. Andersen is blocking shots and rebounding at an unbelievable rate with over three blocks and nearly eight rebounds on average over his last dozen games. He’s earned more playing time from George Karl over this same duration proven by playing 20 or more minutes (which is coincidentally his season average) in all but one of those games while playing 30 or more minutes on three separate occasions.
The final reserve for Denver that deserves some mention is Anthony Carter. AC is the grease that stops the gears from grinding offensively for the Nuggets. When he comes into the game the ball movement noticeably percolates and the transition game comes alive for Denver. In comparison to his bench counterpart, Antonio Daniels, a shoot-first guard on a team that struggles to score. I think Anthony Carter, like J.R. and the Bird, gives the Nuggets more bang for their buck from the bench.
The final area of examination when figuring the context of a team is their expectations. This is a bit subjective, but nevertheless puts a pressure index on what the expectations are for each team, respectively.
For the Nuggets, the pressure couldn’t be greater. Finally healthy after years of misfortune to key components, Denver has the Mile High City’s spotlight with the Nuggets franchise tying its best record for an 82-game season, its hometown boy at the helm, and the perennially playoff bound Avalanche done. Now, all eyes are on the Nuggets as they have become the unlikely sports darling of the state after leaving a bitter taste in everyone’s mouth last season with their fifth straight first round bounce last year against the Lakers.
As for the Hornets, they have all the excuses needed to not get out of the first round this year. Injuries, playing in the toughest division in the Western Conference, and midseason trades have made this a rocky season for New Orleans and their fans. Their run to the Conference Finals last season was a treat for a city that needed one, but the collective feeling has been this year’s campaign hasn’t measured up to last’s.
So, while this makes New Orleans a dangerous team without the expectations that the Nuggets may be experiencing it also makes them a team without a lot of pressure. The Nuggets have reacted to pressure situations favorably all season long and once again I feel the Nuggets have an advantage within the contexts each team is playing.
Now it’s time to get down to my prediction. I truly do believe that the Nuggets win this series in six games. CP3 and David West may be able to will the Hornets to a couple of wins, but the Nuggets are prime to finally make it to the second round. They have the better starting five, bench support, home court advantage, less injury issues to overcome, and more pressure to win this series. Sorry, New Orleans, but there will not be an encore Cinderella run for you this year. It’s our turn.
Go Nuggets!
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