(Denver-CO) It’s taken 15 long years for me to say this, but the Nuggets are FINALLY in the second round again! And just like I did for the first round, here is THE Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Playoff Preview for your intellectual and entertainment purposes. The format is the same. I will breakdown the head-to-head starting five match-ups and then delve into the intangibles that each team brings to the series. So, with no further adieu…

-Point Guard-

Chauncey Billups (22.6 ppg, 7.4 apg, 4 rpg) vs. Jason Kidd (10 ppg, 6 rpg, 5.6 apg)

Once again, at point guard the decisive advantage rests with the Nuggets. No one wanted to believe me when I said this about Mr. Big Shot and CP3, but that’s OK because maybe you will this time around. And let’s face it… Jason Kidd is old. He is still putting up decent numbers for the Mavericks, but he is no where near the clutch performer or the floor general that Chauncey Billups is. Plus, Chauncey out shines him with playoff hardware, scoring, and is a far better defender.

The best thing to do with Jason Kidd is to make him a scorer. We all know that he can dissect a defense with his tremendous passing and knowledge of the x’s and o’s of the game, and to take that away from him you have to make him individualistic offensively. The fact remains that Jason Kidd doesn’t want to score. In fact, it’s just the opposite! He wants his teammates to score off of opportunities he creates for them. If you make him shoot the ball (something that he’s reluctant to do anyway) not only does he not have the capability to carry a team single handedly on offense, but by doing so you take away his greatest talent of setting up other players. Both Dahntay Jones and Chauncey Billups are capable of doing this (depending on how the Nuggets match-up) and if/when The Hound Dog gets put on Kidd it’s going to be a huge problem for the Mavericks. My reasoning being if The Hound Dog could hold CP3 in check then he can certainly do it to Jason Kidd! But, either way the Nuggets choose to match-up they still have the advantage at the point.

Advantage - Nuggets

-Shooting Guard-

Dahntay Jones (8.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.2 apg) vs. Antoine Wright (5.2 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 0.4 apg)

There’s not many shooting guards in the NBA that Dahntay Jones can numerically match-up with, but The Hound Dog vs. Antoine Wright seems to present one of those rare cases. Neither man is going to be a major scoring option for either team, but as the Nuggets Nation saw in round one; Dahntay Jones is, in fact, a major contributor.

But here’s where things get tricky…

Both of these players play supporting roles to their reserve counterparts. Jason Terry and J.R. Smith are the “real” shooting guards that play the lion’s share of the minutes for both teams. And isn’t it fitting that the Sixth Man of the Year and the runner-up are going face off in the second round?

What I like about Jason Terry is his consistency. The J.E.T scored in double figures in all five of the Mavericks’ first round games with a high-game of 19 points and a low-game of ten. On the other hand, J.R. Smith is like an old firecracker without a label. He may just score his post season average of 16 points per game without any three-pointers by getting to the basket and/or shooting free-throws without any ooh’s and ahh’s from the crowd as was the case when J.R. was 0-7 from three in game one and still finished with 19 points. Or, his fuse may get lit and he may score 20 points by draining 5-8 from downtown as was the case in game five when he went off for 20 points while the crowd went absolutely bananas!

With that being said, it’s hard to say who has the clear advantage when comparing these two, I mean four, shooting guards head-to-head, but I’ll leave you with this…

In the playoffs, I’d rather have the firecracker and the defensive stopper than just consistency. The reason being is J.R. and Dahntay Jones are far more dynamic than Wright and Terry and dynamic performances are what make the difference between winning and losing in the postseason.

Advantage - Nuggets

-Small Forward-

Carmelo Anthony (24 ppg, 6 rpg, 5.2 apg) vs. Josh Howard (18.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.4 apg)

This match-up, on the surface, seems like a no-brainer. Carmelo Anthony is the face of the Denver franchise whereas Josh Howard is the guy who says I liked getting “faced” in the off-season. But… Howard is one of the main reasons why Dallas was able to dispose of the Spurs so easily in round one.

It was Howard’s offense which provided sustenance for Dallas in games one and four against San Antonio. He poured in 25 in game one and 28 in game four, both Dallas wins, and has quickly become Jason Kidd’s primary target on the fast break while being the Mavericks’ best perimeter defender by far. His questionable ankle aside, Josh Howard is a critical component in how this Maverick team operates. He shoots “high” percentages across the board (49% from the field, 41% from three, and 86% from the free-throw line in these playoffs so far), but in my opinion is not a clutch performer.

This is not to take anything away from Howard, but he doesn’t make anyone better with his paltry postseason mark of 1.4 assists per game whereas Carmelo does just that with a far superior 5.2 dimes per outing. Carmelo is also the better scorer, rebounder, and clutch performer and for those three reasons gives the Nuggets a decisive advantage at the three.

And I’ll tell you something else about Carmelo that’s not getting a lot of publicity: His defense, improved in the regular season, has continued to improve with the rest of the team’s overall defense in the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Howard’s numbers dip with Carmelo on him throughout this series. Carmelo has finally realized that defense is going to dictate how far the Nuggets go in this postseason and his focus has been noticeably sharper, especially in his one-on-one efforts, in the first round.

Advantage - Nuggets

-Power Forward-

Kenyon Martin (10 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3 apg) vs. Dirk Nowitzki (19.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.2 apg)

This is going to be the most pivotal head-to-head match-up of the series. Kenyon Martin, our best low post defender, and Dirk Nowitzki, quite possibly the NBA’s premier shooting big man, are focal points for both teams on opposite ends of the floor. Kenyon Martin did a marvelous job blanketing David West in round one where he kept the Hornet All-Star to an average of just 18 points per game through five games. Dirk, although his numbers slipped from his regular season averages, is still the offensive horsepower that propels the Mavericks.

What I like about Kenyon Martin right now is his health. The knees and back seem to be as healthy as they can be and that played a huge role in defensive performances we saw in the first round because David West is a perimeter scorer. Just like West (but even better), Dirk may start by getting the ball with his back to the basket but usually finishes by turning, facing, and fading away from 10-15 feet from the goal. Additionally, Dirk is a fantastic three-point shooter and that’s going to extend Kenyon even farther outside thus testing his maneuverability. With Kenyon healthy and showing some incredible bounce that has aided him in aggressively contesting like shot attempts, the best the Nuggets Nation can hope for is Dirk to put up numbers similar to round one.

If Dirk can’t put up 20 points per game, at least, against the Nuggets then Kenyon Martin will have played tremendously. This is going to be tough because the pace of play in this series is going to be much quicker than the Mavericks experienced against the Jurassic Spurs and that’s going to translate into more possessions per game. This means more shots for Dirk and more of a challenge for Kenyon Martin.

So, do I think Kenyon is up for it?

Absolutely.

Do I think Dirk’s scoring average in round two is going to be higher than in round one?

Absolutely.

Advantage - Mavericks

Center

Nene (9 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.4 apg) vs. Erick Dampier (8.4, 8.4, 0.8 apg)

If anyone is salivating when looking at their head-to-head match-up in this series it has to be Nene. Big Brazil did not play particularly well in round one, but did play very well against the Mavericks in three appearances during the regular season. Nene averaged 17 points per game, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and two blocks against Dallas this year and needs to find that same groove after averaging five fewer points than his regular season average against the Hornets.

Poor, Erick Dampier. Not only did Nene eat him up this regular season, but he has to constantly be ridiculed by the hip-hop genre too. Lil Wayne raps, “I’m ballin, you’re just Erick Dampier, dog!”, in an egregious slap at the Dallas big man who, in my assessment, doesn’t do much but rebound and score some garbage buckets here and there while slowing down the entire fast break orchestrated by Jason Kidd. But, in this series, the Nuggets desperately need Nene to break out of his funk. Big Brazil, and the Nuggets, can ill afford just matching Dampier’s output. The best case scenario for doing this is for Nene to use his superior footwork on the lumbering Dampier which will not only get Big Brazil’s shooting percentage back up around 60% (he was 51% from the field in round one), but should also put fouls on Dampier.

On the other end, Dampier becomes non-existent if Nene puts a body on him and keeps him off the offensive glass. Dampier averaged slightly better than three offensive boards per game in round one on a very good defensive rebounding team in the Spurs and that’s where a majority of his eight points per game are scored.

However, that’s easier said than done and at this point, with an honest evaluation of how each player is playing currently, the battle of the paint could go either way. Nene may have gotten the better of Dampier in the regular season, but Dampier’s steadiness and Nene’ postseason slump makes this too close to call.

Advantage - Push

Now, just like I did with the Hornets, it’s time to look at the intangible factors that will play a role in how this series plays out. I call this the “Context” of the series. This includes momentum, each team’s bench, and expectations, or pressure if you prefer, riding on this series.

When the momentum of either team is examined it’s safe to say that both are dead even. The Nuggets blew out the Hornets in all four victories and lost by only two points in their only defeat. Denver’s average margin of victory in that series was a bloated 31 points per game. The Hornets were an injured bunch who underachieved, by last season’s standards, this season. Overall, it was a series that should have been much tougher for Denver, but wasn’t. That’s not Denver’s fault, but rather a formality they had to deal with.

The Mavericks, like Denver, won their opening round series against the Spurs in five games. And similar to Denver against the Hornets, they played a bruised and geriatric Spurs team without Manu Ginobili. But, unlike Denver, the Mavericks won their series as the underdog and without home court advantage. Plus, Dallas didn’t demolish their way to the second round in the same fashion Denver did. All of this may give the Mavs a slight advantage when it comes down to who might be sharper in the early goings of game one, but Denver seems to be peaking on both ends of the floor at the right time and does have the home court advantage making the momentum that each team is bringing into this series too close to decide a clear advantage on.

The next area of scrutiny in the context of this series has to be the bench. The battle of J.R. Smith and Jason Terry is going to be huge, and fun to watch, but I think without those two being considered (mainly because I’ve already considered them in the head-to-head “starting” five analysis) I think Denver will enjoy an advantage with their reserves on the floor. I’ll take the Birdman over Ryan Hollins any day of the week, Linas Kleiza over James Singleton too, and definitely prefer the steady hand and defensive mindedness of Anthony Carter instead of the flashy, often times inconsistent play of J.J. Barea.

Aside from those positional match-ups, the only advantage I see Dallas having off their bench is in the beastly play of Brandon Bass. He didn’t get many minutes against the Spurs, but when he does play he puts out solid contributions. This is a problem though because he plays behind Dirk and in close games doesn’t get much light. However, the Nuggets can go even deeper on their roster if needed. Renaldo Balkman can certainly provide quality minutes when needed and George Karl also has the seven-foot Johan Petro in case of foul induced emergencies.

The final contextual dissection I’ll offer is expectations. The Nuggets put this town into a frenzy with their first round advance. It was as if Denver had won something more by breaking a 15-year drought of postseason advancement. But, despite that feeling this city nestled next to the mountains isn’t unaware of what it’s like to be in the big one with the Broncos winning consecutive Super Bowls, the Avalanche winning Stanley Cups, and the Rockies making it all the way to the World Series in years past. That alone is putting a lot of pressure on the Nuggets to continue their playoff run and having home court advantage is adding to it. This gives the Nuggets an immeasurable amount of pressure to advance and individually, for ‘Melo and Chauncey, to deliver the goods without excuse. For the Mavericks, they were a low seed that upset a state rival, but I doubt if anyone other than Mark Cuban expected this Mavericks team to make any tidal waves in the postseason.

This is yet another area where I think the Nuggets have an advantage. Denver has reacted favorably to pressure packed situations all season and I'm not expecting anything to change now.

Now, let me say that I think this series is going to be won by the Nuggets in six hard fought games. Denver has a slight advantage in their starting five, a small advantage off the bench, and perhaps a minuscule advantage when it comes the context of this series within the alignment of the universe, but you can bet on this series being very entertaining basketball.

I’ve said enough. What do you think, Nuggets Nation? You’re always a quiet bunch, but I want thoughts, even if they are for me to get my head examined, in the comments section. I didn’t do this for myself…

Go Nuggets!

Name

Email

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

Add Comment