| 19 May 2009
(Denver-CO) Nuggets Nation, we are here and the Nuggets are looking for redemption. The Western Conference Finals will be the stage for the Nuggets’ attempt to avenge their infamy of being the only 50-win team to ever be swept in a playoff series. And whom better to face than the team that bestowed such a hideous scar on our beloved franchise just a season ago, the Los Angeles Lakers?
That is, if, a wrestling match doesn’t spoil the fun…
Right off the bat let me tell you that this is the exact match-up at the exact time I would have wanted it. The Lakers are the number one seed, the reigning Western Conference Champions, and it’s only fitting that for a chance at an NBA Championship a new Western Conference team must dethrone them. Having said that, I truly do feel that if there is a team that can do it, it’s the Denver Nuggets and I have a couple of very good reasons for believing so. For starters, everyone who watched the Lakers scratch and claw their way through a seven-game semi-finals series with the Yao Ming-less Rockets knows the Lakers aren’t the juggernaut they were once billed as through the first eight weeks of the regular season when they compiled a 25-5 record. Rather, they have flaws just like any other team, but unlike every other team have Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson to do a great job of hiding them.
So per usual, I will now breakdown how each team’s starting five matches-up and what we can expect from each player throughout this series. I’ll also be examining other aspects of each team that may play pivotal roles in who moves on to the Finals. In playoff previews against the New Orleans Hornets and Dallas Mavericks I called this a deeper look into the “context” of the series, but for the Conference Finals I plan on digging a little deeper in an attempt to preemptively cue your attention for things to watch for in the game within the game. I’m going to call these my “Golden Nuggets”.
-Point Guard-
Chauncey Billups (22.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 7.3 apg) vs. Derek Fisher (7.2 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Statistically, it’s clear that Chauncey Billups gives the Denver Nuggets a tremendous advantage at the one. But what’s even more telling about the battle of the point is how Mr. Big Shot is having one of his best postseason runs ever while Derek Fisher is having one of his worst. Chauncey is hitting over 50% of his three-point attempts, has scored in double-figures in all but one game out of ten this postseason, and has an assist to turnover ratio of better than 4:1. D-Fish is hitting less than 20% from downtown, has only scored in double figures three times in twelve games this postseason, and has an assist to turnover ratio of exactly 2:1.
And for the Nuggets, as Chauncey goes so does his team. But for Derek Fisher, things are much different. He doesn’t need to be a focal point for the Lakers to be successful. Sure, his individual success helps the team overall, but if Fisher doesn’t play great basketball the Lakers are still going to be fine. He’s a role player and as long as the Nuggets keep that role to a minimum they too will be just fine.
GOLDEN NUGGET: Chauncey Billups is 66-69 from the free-throw line during the postseason. That’s an average of nearly seven free-throw attempts per game and for the Nuggets to be successful against the Lakers, Chauncey needs to continue to score nearly a third of his points at the stripe.
Advantage - Nuggets
-Shooting Guard-
Dahntay Jones (7.6 ppg, 0.4 apg, 2.4 rpg) vs. Kobe Bryant (27.4 ppg, 4.5 apg, 5.0 rpg)
Needless to say, Kobe Bryant is a bad man. And to compound matters for the Nuggets, he’s a bad man on a mission. It’s no secret that Kobe wants to win a ring without Shaq to validate his already solid spot in NBA lore and this year may very well be the best chance he’s had to get it done. The good news for Nuggets fans is, unlike in last year’s embarrassing sweep, Denver has a defensive specialist in its starting backcourt. Dahntay Jones is going to play as critical of a role as any Nugget this series when he is called upon to defend Kobe Bryant. How well, and for how long, “The Hound Dog” will be able to cover Bryant for is going to dictate more than just Kobe’s nightly stat line. It’s going to dictate the tone for the overall physicality in the series, how much playing time J.R. Smith sees off the bench, and whether or not the Nuggets double team Bryant in certain situations defensively.
From there, you can choose your subsequent domino effect. If Dahntay is able to play physically with Bryant while maintaining the overall integrity of the defense, it just may be enough to disrupt L.A.’s offense with one fell swoop because the rest of the Nuggets will fall in line with their new and improved brutish brand of stingy defense. As for J.R. Smith’s playing time, if Dahntay is effective covering Bryant I believe George Karl will do something similar to what he did against New Orleans and Chris Paul and play Jones for as long as he can in an attempt to beat the Lakers with defense rather than offense (remember, L.A. was the NBA’s third highest scoring team with the second best W/L margin during the regular season so I doubt if Denver wants to try and outscore the Lakers). And when considering whether or not to double team Bryant, Jones’ ability to keep Kobe from taking over the game with the ball in his hands and thus not necessitating Denver sending an extra defender is going to be paramount. The Lakers are too big and talented on their front line for Denver to have to battle mismatches out of rotation from double-teaming Bryant. Plus, Phil Jackson’s famed triangle offense was built around teams trying to double-team the ball out of a man named Michael Jordan’s hands and we all saw how effective it can be throughout the majority of the 1990’s.
But when it comes to weathering a team’s primary scorer, we’ve learned from round two against Dallas that the Nuggets can withstand a team’s superstar scoring nearly 35 points per game. But with Kobe, it’s not about whether or not he get’s his 30+ points per game; he’s going to, don’t worry. But more importantly it’s HOW he gets them. In all four losses sustained by L.A. this post season, Kobe Bryant has shot a combined 37-99 from the field in those games for a total of 97 points which works out to less than a point per shot taken. This means that when Kobe becomes a volume scorer it’s detrimental to Lakers as a whole.
GOLDEN NUGGET: Dahntay isn’t going to shut Kobe down by any stretch of the imagination, but if he can make the Mamba less efficient of a killer in even a few games he will have given the Nuggets a great chance of pulling out this series.
Advantage - Lakers
-Small Forward-
Carmelo Anthony (27 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.3 apg) vs. Trevor Ariza (10.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.9 apg)
If there’s one Nugget who needs to find his game against the Lakers it’s ‘Melo. Carmelo averaged his fewest points by opponent during the regular season against the Lakers (14.5 ppg over four games) while also shooting his lowest field goal percentage (32%).
But… ‘Melo has been hot in these playoffs.
Aside from his career-high playoff performance in both points and rebounds being spoiled in game four against Dallas, Carmelo’s overall success has been a major driving force behind Denver’s dominating run up to this point. And surprisingly, it hasn’t just been all about ‘Melo’s scoring. He’s posted games with four and five steals, multiple blocked shots, and handed out more assists than you can count on one hand almost routinely during these playoffs. He’s doing all of this while allowing the game to come to him and it’s leaving a smile on his, and the Nuggets Nation’s, face.
And what I really like, despite how the regular season numbers may dictate otherwise, is the match-ups ‘Melo will face against the Lakers. Trevor Ariza, at 210 lbs, is not strong enough to handle ‘Melo on the blocks. Lamar Odom, at 6’10”, is too slow afoot to guard ‘Melo face up. Sasha Vujacic is just not going to provide must resistance.
However, these three different potential match-ups each much be played correctly by ‘Melo for the Nuggets to get the most out of them. Obviously, Anthony needs to play to his strengths depending on who he gets checked by while continuing to allow the game to come to him and a lot of doing that has to do with him first focusing in on defense. It should come as no surprise that Carmelo’s two highest scoring games this postseason were his best nights in the steal column too. In game four’s loss, he notched five steals and scored 41 points and in the series clinching game against New Orleans he swiped four steals and scored 34 points.
As for Trevor Ariza, he is a good defender (credit where credit is due), but up to this point he nor the Lakers have faced a scorer who can get his in the variety of ways Carmelo can.
GOLDEN NUGGET: ‘Melo has grabbed seven or more rebounds in four out of ten games coming into this series, but the Nuggets only won two of those four games. Against the huge front line of the Lakers, Carmelo is going to have to provide even more assistance on the glass in an attempt to keep the Lakers from getting too many second chance opportunities.
Advantage-Nuggets
-Power Forward-
Kenyon Martin (9.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.6 apg) vs. Pau Gasol (18.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 2.2 apg)
The defensive road doesn’t get any easier in these playoffs for Kenyon Martin after tremendous efforts against David West in round one and Dirk Nowitzki in round two. He now faces the challenge of defending the seven-foot Pau Gasol who says he’s ready for Martin’s physical antics.
And if there is any match-up, besides Kobe Bryant versus everyone in a powder blue jersey, that will dictate who wins this series it’s the war waged down low between K-Mart and Gasol.
You have to understand that Pau’s game is like a river’s current slowly but steadily eroding the jagged edges of the rocks in its riverbed until they are smooth. He’s not going to provide much in the department of flash, but what he will do is slowly wear you down in the middle with his offensive rebounding and high percentage shooting. Gasol comes into this series having averaged nearly four offensive rebounds per game while shooting 55% from the field and has played nearly as many minutes as Kobe has.
So, for Kenyon Martin to put his personal stamp on this series, and more importantly in his head-to-head match-up with Pau, I would like to see K-Mart average at least six defensive rebounds per game. Up to this point, Kenyon’s main objective was to stop the opposition’s top scoring option, but against Pau the key will be keeping him off the boards. To do this, Kenyon has to keep Gasol from establishing position down low and this should have a two-pronged effect. First, it will keep Gasol from getting easy put backs and second chance opportunities for Kobe. But secondly, and just as important, this will keep Pau from getting the ball entered to him from the wing for his patented sweeping baby hook he likes to go to so often offensively. When Gasol has to put the ball down on the floor that gives Kenyon the opportunity to use his swift and strong hands to rip the ball away from Pau and (hopefully) some of these turnovers will start the deadly Denver transition game.
GOLDEN NUGGET: Watch out for foul trouble with Kenyon. He’s fouled out only twice this postseason and it should come as no surprise both occasions were Denver defeats.
That is, if, a wrestling match doesn’t spoil the fun…
Right off the bat let me tell you that this is the exact match-up at the exact time I would have wanted it. The Lakers are the number one seed, the reigning Western Conference Champions, and it’s only fitting that for a chance at an NBA Championship a new Western Conference team must dethrone them. Having said that, I truly do feel that if there is a team that can do it, it’s the Denver Nuggets and I have a couple of very good reasons for believing so. For starters, everyone who watched the Lakers scratch and claw their way through a seven-game semi-finals series with the Yao Ming-less Rockets knows the Lakers aren’t the juggernaut they were once billed as through the first eight weeks of the regular season when they compiled a 25-5 record. Rather, they have flaws just like any other team, but unlike every other team have Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson to do a great job of hiding them.
So per usual, I will now breakdown how each team’s starting five matches-up and what we can expect from each player throughout this series. I’ll also be examining other aspects of each team that may play pivotal roles in who moves on to the Finals. In playoff previews against the New Orleans Hornets and Dallas Mavericks I called this a deeper look into the “context” of the series, but for the Conference Finals I plan on digging a little deeper in an attempt to preemptively cue your attention for things to watch for in the game within the game. I’m going to call these my “Golden Nuggets”.
-Point Guard-
Chauncey Billups (22.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 7.3 apg) vs. Derek Fisher (7.2 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Statistically, it’s clear that Chauncey Billups gives the Denver Nuggets a tremendous advantage at the one. But what’s even more telling about the battle of the point is how Mr. Big Shot is having one of his best postseason runs ever while Derek Fisher is having one of his worst. Chauncey is hitting over 50% of his three-point attempts, has scored in double-figures in all but one game out of ten this postseason, and has an assist to turnover ratio of better than 4:1. D-Fish is hitting less than 20% from downtown, has only scored in double figures three times in twelve games this postseason, and has an assist to turnover ratio of exactly 2:1.
And for the Nuggets, as Chauncey goes so does his team. But for Derek Fisher, things are much different. He doesn’t need to be a focal point for the Lakers to be successful. Sure, his individual success helps the team overall, but if Fisher doesn’t play great basketball the Lakers are still going to be fine. He’s a role player and as long as the Nuggets keep that role to a minimum they too will be just fine.
GOLDEN NUGGET: Chauncey Billups is 66-69 from the free-throw line during the postseason. That’s an average of nearly seven free-throw attempts per game and for the Nuggets to be successful against the Lakers, Chauncey needs to continue to score nearly a third of his points at the stripe.
Advantage - Nuggets
-Shooting Guard-
Dahntay Jones (7.6 ppg, 0.4 apg, 2.4 rpg) vs. Kobe Bryant (27.4 ppg, 4.5 apg, 5.0 rpg)
Needless to say, Kobe Bryant is a bad man. And to compound matters for the Nuggets, he’s a bad man on a mission. It’s no secret that Kobe wants to win a ring without Shaq to validate his already solid spot in NBA lore and this year may very well be the best chance he’s had to get it done. The good news for Nuggets fans is, unlike in last year’s embarrassing sweep, Denver has a defensive specialist in its starting backcourt. Dahntay Jones is going to play as critical of a role as any Nugget this series when he is called upon to defend Kobe Bryant. How well, and for how long, “The Hound Dog” will be able to cover Bryant for is going to dictate more than just Kobe’s nightly stat line. It’s going to dictate the tone for the overall physicality in the series, how much playing time J.R. Smith sees off the bench, and whether or not the Nuggets double team Bryant in certain situations defensively.
From there, you can choose your subsequent domino effect. If Dahntay is able to play physically with Bryant while maintaining the overall integrity of the defense, it just may be enough to disrupt L.A.’s offense with one fell swoop because the rest of the Nuggets will fall in line with their new and improved brutish brand of stingy defense. As for J.R. Smith’s playing time, if Dahntay is effective covering Bryant I believe George Karl will do something similar to what he did against New Orleans and Chris Paul and play Jones for as long as he can in an attempt to beat the Lakers with defense rather than offense (remember, L.A. was the NBA’s third highest scoring team with the second best W/L margin during the regular season so I doubt if Denver wants to try and outscore the Lakers). And when considering whether or not to double team Bryant, Jones’ ability to keep Kobe from taking over the game with the ball in his hands and thus not necessitating Denver sending an extra defender is going to be paramount. The Lakers are too big and talented on their front line for Denver to have to battle mismatches out of rotation from double-teaming Bryant. Plus, Phil Jackson’s famed triangle offense was built around teams trying to double-team the ball out of a man named Michael Jordan’s hands and we all saw how effective it can be throughout the majority of the 1990’s.
But when it comes to weathering a team’s primary scorer, we’ve learned from round two against Dallas that the Nuggets can withstand a team’s superstar scoring nearly 35 points per game. But with Kobe, it’s not about whether or not he get’s his 30+ points per game; he’s going to, don’t worry. But more importantly it’s HOW he gets them. In all four losses sustained by L.A. this post season, Kobe Bryant has shot a combined 37-99 from the field in those games for a total of 97 points which works out to less than a point per shot taken. This means that when Kobe becomes a volume scorer it’s detrimental to Lakers as a whole.
GOLDEN NUGGET: Dahntay isn’t going to shut Kobe down by any stretch of the imagination, but if he can make the Mamba less efficient of a killer in even a few games he will have given the Nuggets a great chance of pulling out this series.
Advantage - Lakers
-Small Forward-
Carmelo Anthony (27 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 4.3 apg) vs. Trevor Ariza (10.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.9 apg)
If there’s one Nugget who needs to find his game against the Lakers it’s ‘Melo. Carmelo averaged his fewest points by opponent during the regular season against the Lakers (14.5 ppg over four games) while also shooting his lowest field goal percentage (32%).
But… ‘Melo has been hot in these playoffs.
Aside from his career-high playoff performance in both points and rebounds being spoiled in game four against Dallas, Carmelo’s overall success has been a major driving force behind Denver’s dominating run up to this point. And surprisingly, it hasn’t just been all about ‘Melo’s scoring. He’s posted games with four and five steals, multiple blocked shots, and handed out more assists than you can count on one hand almost routinely during these playoffs. He’s doing all of this while allowing the game to come to him and it’s leaving a smile on his, and the Nuggets Nation’s, face.
And what I really like, despite how the regular season numbers may dictate otherwise, is the match-ups ‘Melo will face against the Lakers. Trevor Ariza, at 210 lbs, is not strong enough to handle ‘Melo on the blocks. Lamar Odom, at 6’10”, is too slow afoot to guard ‘Melo face up. Sasha Vujacic is just not going to provide must resistance.
However, these three different potential match-ups each much be played correctly by ‘Melo for the Nuggets to get the most out of them. Obviously, Anthony needs to play to his strengths depending on who he gets checked by while continuing to allow the game to come to him and a lot of doing that has to do with him first focusing in on defense. It should come as no surprise that Carmelo’s two highest scoring games this postseason were his best nights in the steal column too. In game four’s loss, he notched five steals and scored 41 points and in the series clinching game against New Orleans he swiped four steals and scored 34 points.
As for Trevor Ariza, he is a good defender (credit where credit is due), but up to this point he nor the Lakers have faced a scorer who can get his in the variety of ways Carmelo can.
GOLDEN NUGGET: ‘Melo has grabbed seven or more rebounds in four out of ten games coming into this series, but the Nuggets only won two of those four games. Against the huge front line of the Lakers, Carmelo is going to have to provide even more assistance on the glass in an attempt to keep the Lakers from getting too many second chance opportunities.
Advantage-Nuggets
-Power Forward-
Kenyon Martin (9.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.6 apg) vs. Pau Gasol (18.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 2.2 apg)
The defensive road doesn’t get any easier in these playoffs for Kenyon Martin after tremendous efforts against David West in round one and Dirk Nowitzki in round two. He now faces the challenge of defending the seven-foot Pau Gasol who says he’s ready for Martin’s physical antics.
And if there is any match-up, besides Kobe Bryant versus everyone in a powder blue jersey, that will dictate who wins this series it’s the war waged down low between K-Mart and Gasol.
You have to understand that Pau’s game is like a river’s current slowly but steadily eroding the jagged edges of the rocks in its riverbed until they are smooth. He’s not going to provide much in the department of flash, but what he will do is slowly wear you down in the middle with his offensive rebounding and high percentage shooting. Gasol comes into this series having averaged nearly four offensive rebounds per game while shooting 55% from the field and has played nearly as many minutes as Kobe has.
So, for Kenyon Martin to put his personal stamp on this series, and more importantly in his head-to-head match-up with Pau, I would like to see K-Mart average at least six defensive rebounds per game. Up to this point, Kenyon’s main objective was to stop the opposition’s top scoring option, but against Pau the key will be keeping him off the boards. To do this, Kenyon has to keep Gasol from establishing position down low and this should have a two-pronged effect. First, it will keep Gasol from getting easy put backs and second chance opportunities for Kobe. But secondly, and just as important, this will keep Pau from getting the ball entered to him from the wing for his patented sweeping baby hook he likes to go to so often offensively. When Gasol has to put the ball down on the floor that gives Kenyon the opportunity to use his swift and strong hands to rip the ball away from Pau and (hopefully) some of these turnovers will start the deadly Denver transition game.
GOLDEN NUGGET: Watch out for foul trouble with Kenyon. He’s fouled out only twice this postseason and it should come as no surprise both occasions were Denver defeats.
Advantage-Lakers
-Center-
Nene (12.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.5 apg) vs. Andrew Bynum (5.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.4 apg)
This match-up, much like the men involved, is an enigma. Both men are critical to their team’s overall success, but their individual success does not dictate that of the their respective team.
Confused? Allow me to elaborate.
Nene has been a solid performer throughout these playoffs, but has teased us a bit with his overall inconsistency in too many statistical categories. His 12-point, 14-rebound effort in game one against the Hornets was little more than a fireworks display before the thud of his irregularity in games two through five. In games two and three against the Hornets, Big Brazil was merely a defender and rebounder. In game four, he was just a scorer. Same goes for his series against the Mavericks. In game one, he was brilliant offensively with 24 points and five assists. In game two, he was genius by adding eight rebounds to his 25 points, but these kinds of performances didn’t last. He disappeared offensively in games three and four on a combined 4-15 shooting from the field while still rebounding at a decent clip, but then came on strong in the series clinching game five with 17 points and seven rebounds.
As for Bynum, the story reads the same only with less production across the board. In seven of L.A.’s twelve games this postseason, he has scored four or fewer points in just as erratic of minutes played. But, when L.A. has needed him the most he has delivered. In a pivotal game five against the Rockets, Bynum came alive with 14 points and six boards. Similarly, in game seven against Houston, Bynum answered the call of duty with another 14-point, six-board game to clinch the series. But, that was after playing a scoreless 19 minutes in game six of which the Lakers lost.
GOLDEN NUGGET: If Nene starts to shoot midrange jumpers Andrew Bynum is winning the battle in the middle. Not only does Nene have the superior foot speed and strength over the slender third year player, but Bynum is not much of a shot blocker either. So, Nene would be wise to do his work close to the basket where Bynum will almost surely send him to the line and nullify himself from the game with foul trouble while Nene can get his shooting percentage, and confidence, high in hopes of sustaining some consistency throughout this series.
Advantage-Nuggets
If you’re still reading this not only do I commend you for sticking with my lengthy analysis, but I promise to keep things short and sweet when examining the “context” of which both teams enter this series with. This examination includes the momentum, bench, and pressure surrounding both teams and how each component can either help or hurt either team in this series.
Momentum entering this series is tough to figure out because the Nuggets have had the luxury of dismantling their opponents with ease while the Lakers needed seven games to overcome the Rockets sans Yao Ming. This leaves the Lakers with a sense of mortality of which can only fuel their competitive fire knowing that they were already close to elimination while the Nuggets have the advantage of being more well-rested. This leaves me a little worried that the Nuggets may come out a bit rusty while the Lakers had to execute at a high level just to get here, but later in this series the advantage may rest with the Nuggets if the series extends to a sixth or seventh game.
However, the bench is going to be a pivotal aspect of this series. And it’s my assessment that the Nuggets have the superior bench. In fact, it’s not even close. Aside from Lamar Odom, the Lakers are short handed for consistent firepower either offensively or defensively. Contrarily, the Nuggets have a plethora of players they can turn to for a variety of services. J.R. Smith has scored in double figures in all ten of Denver’s postseason contests and in exactly half of those games has scored more than 18 points, the Birdman is an instant defensive face lift when he comes in for either Nene or Kenyon Martin, Anthony Carter is as good as a facilitator as you’re going to find coming off a bench in this league, and Renaldo Balkman is almost surely going to see an opportunity to D up Kobe Bryant in this series and if nothing else burn up some fouls on the Mamba.
As for the pressure bestowed on either team to emerge to the NBA Finals this is once again an area that is too close to call. I’ve already eluded to Kobe’s ulterior motive of winning a ring without Shaq and that alone is enough to fuel the Lakers to a series victory. But, the Nuggets are not short on pressure either. They have the entire city of Denver on their bandwagon, the high hopes of a hometown hero with a championship pedigree, and the best season in franchise history riding on the line.
Overall things are just too close to call, but because I feel the Nuggets have three out five advantages in the starting line-ups and the better bench I’m taking the Nuggets in seven games. Furthermore, I wouldn’t be surprised if by one way or another this series is knotted two games apiece after both teams play in front of their home crowd twice. But, in the end I truly do feel Denver’s deep bench and time to rest is going to catch up to the Lakers in games six and seven while hopefully leaving the Nuggets still standing and headed to their first NBA Finals in franchise history.
Go Nuggets!
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