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(Denver-CO Finally! The regular season is upon us after 151 days (I’ve been counting) of waiting! Tonight, the Denver Nuggets host the division rival Utah Jazz to kick off the 2009-10 campaign in the first of what I hope is many Colorado blizzards. Last season, the Jazz and Nuggets split their four games with each team winning both of their games at home. But, this season, that’s just not good enough for the Mile High crew.
In tonight’s game, the Nuggets will presumably start Joey Graham in place of the suspended J.R. Smith with the usual starters. Graham averaged 6.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and less than an assist per game this preseason, but did enough on the defensive end to win George Karl’s favor over Arron Afflalo (who will also see plenty of action tonight) for the starting nod. However, Graham and Afflalo are primarily defensive players so that is going to put an extra load on the rest of the Nuggets to pick up the scoring slack left by J.R. Smith’s absence.
I’m looking in the direction of Carmelo Anthony and Nene to fill this offensive void because the Jazz do not have an answer for either Nugget on the defensive end. Mehmet Okur, while a handful on the offensive end, does not have the strength or foot speed to handle Nene down low so my hope is “Big Brazil” establishes his presence on the low block early and often. If Nene does this, not only will it lead to pointblank scoring attempts, but it should also be able to slap a couple of quick fouls on the Jazz big man which should open up the middle for the rest of the Nuggets. In the case of Carmelo, he will most likely be shadowed by Andrei Kirilenko on the defensive end. Kirilenko’s strength guarding ‘Melo is down low, so for Carmelo to be successful early he should turn, face, and make a quick move towards the rim. This too should plant a couple of early fouls on Kirilenko and get Carmelo to the line. And once ‘Melo blows by AK47 a few times that should open up Anthony’s deadly midrange game.
Aside from picking up J.R.’s scoring contribution there are a few areas where the Nuggets can drastically improve from last season. The first is rebounding. Last season, the Nuggets were 26th in the NBA in offensive rebounds allowed (11 per game) and it should come as no surprise that Denver was also 25th in the NBA in second chance points allowed (14.3 ppg). On the other hand, the Jazz are a team known for their offensive rebounding and it’s only fundamental that they were also very good at converting second chance points. Case in point, Denver needs to make a conscious adjustment in the rebounding department because when they out rebounded their opponent last season the Nuggets were a stout 30-7 compared to just 22-19 when losing the battle of the boards.
Another key aspect to keep an eye on tonight, and for the rest of the season, is Denver’s woes with turnovers. The Nuggets were very good at forcing turnovers last season ranking 5th overall with 15.4 miscues forced per game. Unfortunately, they were also good at giving the ball right back with a nightly average 15.3 turnovers per game of their own (25th overall). Like rebounding, it’s elementary to understand this point when you consider Denver allowed nearly eight steals per game to their opponent. Steals are going to happen, it’s a part of the game, but the unforced and unnecessary turnovers have to be kept to a minimum this season for the Nuggets to improve as a group.
My last nugget of information pertains to how the Nuggets have fared over the years in home openers. Denver will be opening the season at home for just the fourth time since the Pepsi Center opened in 1999. Overall, Denver is surprisingly just 5-9 in its past 14
home openers, including 1-3 under coach George Karl. And, if you remember correctly, this is the second straight season Denver will be facing Utah in both teams’ season opener. Last season, Utah was able to beat the Nuggets in Salt Lake, 98-94, in the season opener and in season openers against the Jazz, Denver is 1-2 overall.
These two teams have each won the Northwest Division twice in the last four years, but somewhere the Portland Trailblazers are lurking… We’ll worry about those guys tomorrow night.
Be sure to check out True Blue Jazz for Utah's side of tonight's story.
Go Nuggets!
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On a side note: How has Jerry Sloan managed to keep his job? On second thought, keep him Utah, maybe he'll bring you the success that Malone and Stockton did.... oh wait...
Go Nugs!!